The Liz & Nancy Jan 6 Shit Show
2022-07-03 22:35:15 UTC
In article <***@95.216.243.224>
<***@gmail.com> wrote:
Instead of fighting a recession, the US Congress is having a
witches convention to attack a former president.
For the last quarter-century, the federal government has stepped
in with some kind of emergency relief when the economy is in the
tank. The next recession will likely break from that trend.
The dot-com crash of 2001 saw the Bush administration send $300
stimulus payments to tens of millions of households. Amid the
2008 financial crisis, the Federal Reserve slashed interest
rates to historic lows and buoyed financial markets. Then, in
2009, former President Barack Obama's first major piece of
legislation was an $830 billion package to mitigate the worst of
the Great Recession.
The response in 2020 as the coronavirus thrust the US into a
sudden shutdown saw the Fed and Congress support the economy
with low rates, emergency lending programs, bigger stimulus
checks, and boosted unemployment benefits.
Now, as a growing number of economists see another downturn on
the horizon, a similar degree of government help isn't expected
even with inflation at 41-year highs. That's because the
looming recession will be one engineered by policymakers in an
effort to combat inflation and its causes, leaving big federal
relief efforts unlikely.
Not helping matters is the fact that pandemic-era stimulus has
recently come under scrutiny for fueling today's inflation.
"Democrats setting policy on party lines decided on trillions of
dollars in reckless spending," Senate Minority Leader Mitch
McConnell said in a floor speech that touched on inflation
earlier this month.
Economists are slower to pin full blame on stimulus, citing
other factors like Russia's invasion of Ukraine and tangled
global supply chains. Still, decades-high inflation might be
enough to dissuade even Democrats from pushing aggressive
stimulus.
Another headwind to further relief is the fact that Republicans
are expected to retake at least one chamber of Congress in the
midterms. That would put into power a party that's already been
outspoken about avoiding new spending.
These factors are coalescing at a time when the US looks headed
for a recession sometime in 2023. Economists fear that the Fed's
fastest pace of rate hikes in nearly three decades will slam the
brakes on economic growth, freezing spending, hitting corporate
revenues, and resulting in layoffs.
Still, the low likelihood of further stimulus may not matter if
the economy avoids a recession, or only sees a mild one a
forecast held by a range of high-profile pundits.
Goldman Sachs wrote on June 20 that there's only a 30% chance
the economy slides into a downturn in the next year. JPMorgan
holds a similarly rosy outlook, though sees a higher chance of a
slump over the next two years.
"There's a lot of reasons to believe that it would be a mild
recession," Jason Furman, a former top economist to President
Barack Obama, recently told Insider. He cited the savings many
American households built up during the pandemic and the absence
of stresses on the financial sector.
https://www.businessinsider.com/next-recession-stimulus-checks-
boosted-unemployment-benefits-inflation-risk-hits-2022-6
<***@gmail.com> wrote:
Instead of fighting a recession, the US Congress is having a
witches convention to attack a former president.
For the last quarter-century, the federal government has stepped
in with some kind of emergency relief when the economy is in the
tank. The next recession will likely break from that trend.
The dot-com crash of 2001 saw the Bush administration send $300
stimulus payments to tens of millions of households. Amid the
2008 financial crisis, the Federal Reserve slashed interest
rates to historic lows and buoyed financial markets. Then, in
2009, former President Barack Obama's first major piece of
legislation was an $830 billion package to mitigate the worst of
the Great Recession.
The response in 2020 as the coronavirus thrust the US into a
sudden shutdown saw the Fed and Congress support the economy
with low rates, emergency lending programs, bigger stimulus
checks, and boosted unemployment benefits.
Now, as a growing number of economists see another downturn on
the horizon, a similar degree of government help isn't expected
even with inflation at 41-year highs. That's because the
looming recession will be one engineered by policymakers in an
effort to combat inflation and its causes, leaving big federal
relief efforts unlikely.
Not helping matters is the fact that pandemic-era stimulus has
recently come under scrutiny for fueling today's inflation.
"Democrats setting policy on party lines decided on trillions of
dollars in reckless spending," Senate Minority Leader Mitch
McConnell said in a floor speech that touched on inflation
earlier this month.
Economists are slower to pin full blame on stimulus, citing
other factors like Russia's invasion of Ukraine and tangled
global supply chains. Still, decades-high inflation might be
enough to dissuade even Democrats from pushing aggressive
stimulus.
Another headwind to further relief is the fact that Republicans
are expected to retake at least one chamber of Congress in the
midterms. That would put into power a party that's already been
outspoken about avoiding new spending.
These factors are coalescing at a time when the US looks headed
for a recession sometime in 2023. Economists fear that the Fed's
fastest pace of rate hikes in nearly three decades will slam the
brakes on economic growth, freezing spending, hitting corporate
revenues, and resulting in layoffs.
Still, the low likelihood of further stimulus may not matter if
the economy avoids a recession, or only sees a mild one a
forecast held by a range of high-profile pundits.
Goldman Sachs wrote on June 20 that there's only a 30% chance
the economy slides into a downturn in the next year. JPMorgan
holds a similarly rosy outlook, though sees a higher chance of a
slump over the next two years.
"There's a lot of reasons to believe that it would be a mild
recession," Jason Furman, a former top economist to President
Barack Obama, recently told Insider. He cited the savings many
American households built up during the pandemic and the absence
of stresses on the financial sector.
https://www.businessinsider.com/next-recession-stimulus-checks-
boosted-unemployment-benefits-inflation-risk-hits-2022-6